Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 8:49 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?

Total Volume

$62.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?

Vol

$62.00K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $62.00K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $62.00K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$62.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2026 If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the position also resolves to Yes. If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House leaves office solely because they have passed away, that outcome does not resolve to Yes. This market will close

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2026

If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the position also resolves to Yes. If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House leaves office solely because they have passed away, that outcome does not resolve to Yes. This market will close 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the p"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $62.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $62.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics