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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Milan on May 2?

Name: Highest temperature in Milan on May 2?
End: 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$17.65K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Milan on May 2?

Vol

$17.65K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $17.65K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.65K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 2?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 2?	Poly	53%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 2?	Poly	26%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 2?	Poly	15%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 2?	Poly	5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on May 2?	Poly	3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C or below on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 2?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$17.65K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahre

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Milan on May 2?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.

To toggle between Fahre

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $60.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C or below on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $586
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $574
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate