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Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

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Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

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Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	59%
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	31%
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	11%

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59%

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About This Event

after the 2026 midterms after the 2026 midterms For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting, i, uncontested governorships, those without a scheduled election in 2026, plus, ii, contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the accelerated resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** after the 2026 midterms

after the 2026 midterms For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting, i, uncontested governorships, those without a scheduled election in 2026, plus, ii, contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the accelerated resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

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KALSHI

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.0¢No 41.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled

KALSHI

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?

If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a sch

KALSHI

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?

If neither party holds more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/xXWh3k" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?"></iframe>

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Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

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Events (1)

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Markets (3)

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?

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Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?

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