Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

Name: Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?
End: 2026-10-17T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.67K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

Vol

$1.67K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.67K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.67K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 16, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	85%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	84%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.2 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	77%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	62%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.4 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	60%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.6 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	51%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.8 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	51%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.2 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	28%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$1.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "Preside

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 17, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "Preside

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.8 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $287
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $290
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.2 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $420
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.4 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $270
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.6 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $152
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.8 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $115
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $186
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.2 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics