Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Poland rate decision in November

Total Volume

$15.02K

Events

Markets

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Poland rate decision in November

Vol

$15.02K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $15.02K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.02K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?	Kalshi	70%
Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?	Kalshi	18%
Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

70%

Top Probability

$15.02K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Nov 4, 2026 meeting If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of X more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Poland rate decision in November
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 4, 2026 meeting

If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of X more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple polic"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Poland rate decision in November

Volume$15.02K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple polic

KALSHI

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of hike 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates,

KALSHI

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of cut 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, o

KALSHI

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of hike more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy

KALSHI

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy

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18¢

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Poland rate decision in November

Poland rate decision in November

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Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

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Events (1)

Poland rate decision in November

Markets (5)

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

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Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Poland rate decision in November

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Council meeting?

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Share

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