This prediction market addresses the possibility of the United States conducting a major cyberattack against Iran before January 31, 2026. A qualifying attack, as defined for market resolution, is a cyber operation attributable to the U.S. that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access to core Iranian national systems, such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, or the financial system. This topic sits at the intersection of escalating geopolitical tensions, evolving cyber warfare doctrines, and the Biden administration's stated policy of deterrence and diplomacy toward Iran. Interest in this market stems from ongoing proxy conflicts, stalled nuclear negotiations, and a history of offensive cyber operations between the two nations, making the prospect of a significant digital escalation a subject of intense speculation among policymakers, security analysts, and investors. Recent years have seen a pattern of cyber skirmishes, including attacks on industrial control systems and disruptive malware campaigns, raising questions about the threshold for a 'major' state-on-state cyber operation and the potential for miscalculation that could lead to broader conflict.

Historical Context

The history of U.S.-Iran cyber conflict provides essential context for this prediction. A pivotal moment was the Stuxnet worm, discovered in 2010, which was a joint U.S.-Israeli operation that physically damaged Iranian nuclear centrifuges at the Natanz facility. This established a precedent for using cyber means to achieve kinetic effects on critical infrastructure. In response, Iran significantly invested in its cyber capabilities. By the mid-2010s, Iranian state-sponsored groups were linked to disruptive attacks, such as the 2012-2013 campaign against U.S. financial institutions and the 2014 breach of the Las Vegas Sands Corporation. A major escalation occurred in 2020 when the U.S. Cyber Command conducted a disruptive cyberattack against Iranian propaganda outlets in retaliation for Iranian-backed militia attacks. More recently, in 2022, the U.S. launched cyber operations against Iranian military radar systems following attacks on U.S. forces. This pattern shows a tit-for-tat dynamic where cyber tools are used for signaling and retaliation below the threshold of open warfare. The historical arc demonstrates an increasing normalization of offensive cyber operations as a tool of statecraft between these two adversaries.

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