This prediction market addresses whether the United States government will formally announce or confirm military coordination with, or military support for, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026. The question emerges from a long history of U.S.-Iranian tensions and periodic debates within Washington about strategies to counter the Islamic Republic. The U.S. has historically provided various forms of support to opposition elements, but overt military backing would represent a significant escalation in policy. Recent years have seen increased congressional interest in this approach, particularly following nationwide protests in Iran and continued regional instability. The market's resolution depends on unambiguous, on-the-record public statements from authorized U.S. government officials or entities, excluding informal remarks or unconfirmed plans. Interest in this topic stems from its potential to dramatically alter Middle Eastern geopolitics, impact global energy markets, and redefine America's role in the region.

Historical Context

U.S. involvement with Iranian opposition has deep roots. The most direct precedent is the 1953 coup, orchestrated by the CIA and British intelligence, which overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and restored the Shah to power. This intervention created lasting anti-American sentiment in Iran. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the U.S. provided covert support to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). In the 2000s, the George W. Bush administration allocated funding for democracy promotion programs in Iran, though these were largely non-military. The Obama administration pursued the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), temporarily de-emphasizing opposition support. The Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign, initiated in 2018 after withdrawing from the JCPOA, included rhetoric supportive of Iranian protesters but stopped short of military backing for opposition groups. The Biden administration has continued sanctions while engaging in indirect nuclear talks, maintaining a public stance focused on diplomacy over regime change.

Frequently Asked Questions