Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event, "MI-03 House Election Margin of Victory," resolves on the margin of victory, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each contract covers a bracket of that margin. Independent candidates do not count as either party's option, and the contract text notes that a nominee replaced before election day would be substituted in the contract [1].

The wording varies across contracts. Some ask about a bracket, such as "by 10%-15%," while others ask "by 35% or more" or about the Republican candidate winning outright [1]. These are different questions, so their prices should be read separately rather than compared as interchangeable outcomes.

The rules include edge cases. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. Ties follow specified tiebreak rules, and a tie between two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. A date in the rules is a resolution deadline, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:52:02.372Z [1]. They describe that observation, not live conditions now. Each Yes price is a snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability.

Among the nine saved markets, the highest Yes prices were for the Democratic 10%-15% bracket at 0.28, the 20%-25% bracket at 0.245, and the 15%-20% bracket at 0.225 [1]. The Republican win contract was at 0.0285, and the 5%-10% Democratic bracket was at 0.003 [1]. Volume is not reported here, and it would not indicate liquidity or trader count anyway.

All listed markets share the same listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Because they share one provider event, comparing their prices is a within-event comparison. The data does not support averaging them or comparing them to other platforms' contracts, whose wording may differ.

What remains uncertain

The evidence covers one provider event with all saved markets included and no partial sample flag [1]. However, the sample warning states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Prices of listed brackets therefore cannot be read as the full distribution.

The snapshot contains no information on why prices are where they are, recent news, trader agreement, or the historical accuracy of such prices. The source excerpt states the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," but it provides no further detail on the status of the race [1].

References

1. Polymarket: MI-03 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.