Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

Name: Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$40.43K

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Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $40.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $40.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?	Poly	22%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

22%

Top Probability

$40.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $40.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 30.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $40.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 13h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

22¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/xnIvjt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?"></iframe>

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Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

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Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)