PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Name: Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$146.10K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $146.10K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $146.10K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Poly	18%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (230 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official inform

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before thi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $146.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $146.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

229d 12h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

18¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/xnIvjt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)