GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Name: Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$158.28K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Vol

$158.28K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $158.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $158.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Poly	20%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$158.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official inform

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, September 28, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (94 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official inform

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before thi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $158.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.0K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.86)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $158.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics