This prediction market focuses on the X posting activity of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, during a specific week in March 2026. The market resolves based on the number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts published by the official account @khamenei_ir between March 24 and March 31, 2026. Replies are excluded, but any reply that appears on the main feed will be counted. Deleted posts are included if they remain visible for approximately five minutes, the estimated capture time for the tracking mechanism. Khamenei's social media presence is a direct channel for his political and religious guidance, bypassing traditional state media. His posts often address domestic policy, international relations, and ideological matters, making them a barometer for the regime's priorities and public messaging. The specific week in late March 2026 coincides with the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) period, which typically runs from March 20 or 21. This period often features public addresses and messages from the leadership. Observers track his posting frequency for signals about political stability, internal debates, or responses to unfolding events. The count provides a quantifiable metric of his public engagement during a culturally significant time.

Historical Context

Ayatollah Khamenei joined X in April 2009, during the Green Movement protests, which marked an early adoption of social media by a senior Iranian leader for political communication. His activity has been methodical, averaging between 5 to 15 posts per week, with spikes during crises or religious holidays. A significant precedent was the period surrounding the U.S. assassination of Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. Khamenei's X activity increased notably, with multiple posts condemning the act and vowing revenge, demonstrating how the account is used during geopolitical flashpoints. The platform has been officially banned in Iran since 2009 following the protests, creating a paradox where the country's top leader uses a service his government blocks for ordinary citizens. This ban is enforced unevenly, with officials and pro-regime actors often using VPNs to access it. The Nowruz period has historically been a time for scheduled messaging. For example, in March 2023, Khamenei's annual Nowruz address was disseminated in segments across his social media accounts, contributing to a higher post count during that week.

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