Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

Name: Next US Senate Minority Leader?
End: 2027-01-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.27K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

Vol

$9.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	46%
Will Chuck Schumer be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	35%
Will John Barrasso be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	9%
Will Tom Cotton be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	7%
Will Mark Kelly be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	7%
Will Brian Schatz be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	6%
Will Patty Murray be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	4%
Will Cory Booker be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	4%
Will Rick Scott be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$9.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting ma

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next US Senate Minority Leader?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 3, 2027 (84 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.

If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting ma

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.

If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $70.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will John Barrasso be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $190
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tom Cotton be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $128
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Chuck Schumer be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Brian Schatz be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $102
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Patty Murray be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $221
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Cory Booker be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $349
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mark Kelly be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $259
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Rick Scott be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics