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Before 2035 If X becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Cardinal Pietro Parolin becoming the next Pope. His leading contract on Kalshi trades at approximately 13%, translating to an implied probability of about 1 in 8. This pricing suggests the market views his ascension as a distinct possibility, but firmly as an underdog among potential candidates. The combined volume across the five "next Pope" markets on Kalshi is a modest $8,000, indicating thin liquidity and speculative interest rather than a strong consensus.
The 13% price for Cardinal Parolin reflects his unique position as the Vatican's Secretary of State, essentially the Pope's chief administrator and a central figure in the Holy See's diplomacy. This role makes him a known quantity with immense institutional experience, a traditional credential for the papacy. However, the odds are tempered by historical patterns. The last time a sitting Secretary of State was elected Pope was Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII) in 1939. Recent conclaves have often favored candidates perceived as pastoral figures from outside the Vatican's central bureaucracy, a trend that works against Parolin.
Furthermore, his age, 69, is a neutral factor, but his long tenure in a powerful political role within the Curia could make him a polarizing figure among cardinals seeking a pontiff seen as a unifying, pastoral leader rather than a career diplomat.
The odds for Cardinal Parolin are highly sensitive to the context of the next conclave. A sudden, unexpected vacancy could boost his chances as a stabilizing, experienced candidate during a crisis. Conversely, a prolonged papacy by Pope Francis that leads to a conclave later in the 2030s would diminish his prospects due to advancing age.
The cardinal's own health and any significant diplomatic successes or failures for the Vatican under his guidance will also shift his perceived viability. The most powerful catalyst, however, will be the composition of the College of Cardinals at the time of the next conclave. Pope Francis's appointments have shifted the electorate's balance. If the next conclave features a cardinalate seeking deep institutional reform, Parolin's odds would likely fall. If the priority becomes governance and diplomatic continuity, his market price would rise significantly.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The question of who will become the next Pope is a significant topic of speculation in both religious and geopolitical circles, particularly given the advanced age of Pope Francis and the evolving dynamics within the Catholic Church. This prediction market specifically focuses on identifying the first person elected as Pope before January 1, 2035, resolving to 'Yes' for a named candidate should they achieve this. The selection of a Pope, conducted through the secretive conclave of cardinals, is one of the world's oldest ongoing electoral processes, with profound implications for over 1.3 billion Catholics globally. Interest stems from the potential for a papal transition to signal major shifts in Church doctrine, governance, and its role in global affairs. Recent developments, including Pope Francis's health concerns and his appointments of a large majority of the cardinal-electors, have intensified discussion about his successor's identity and the possible directions for the Church's future. Analysts and Vatican watchers closely examine the backgrounds, theological positions, and regional origins of leading papabile, or papal candidates, to forecast the outcome of the next conclave.
The process of papal succession is governed by centuries of tradition and formalized rules. The most recent conclave, in March 2013, followed the historic resignation of Pope Benedict XVI, the first papal abdication since 1415. This event broke a 598-year precedent of popes serving for life and introduced new dynamics into succession planning. That conclave elected Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, who took the name Francis, becoming the first Jesuit and first pope from the Americas. Historically, the papacy was dominated by Italians for centuries until the election of the Polish John Paul II in 1978, which began a trend of 'globalized' papacies. The rules for the conclave itself are detailed in the apostolic constitution 'Universi Dominici Gregis', updated by John Paul II in 1996 and further modified by Benedict XVI in 2007 and 2013. These rules mandate secrecy, establish the two-thirds majority requirement for election (which can shift to a simple majority after several deadlocked ballots), and govern the physical isolation of the cardinal-electors in the Sistine Chapel.
The election of a new Pope has profound consequences that extend far beyond the Vatican walls. It directly influences the spiritual direction, moral teachings, and internal governance of the world's largest Christian denomination, affecting everything from bioethical debates to interfaith relations. Geopolitically, the Pope serves as a unique moral voice and diplomatic actor on the global stage, with the potential to shape international discourse on issues like climate change, migration, poverty, and conflict resolution. The choice of successor signals strategic priorities for the Church, potentially emphasizing pastoral outreach, doctrinal consolidation, administrative reform, or engagement with specific regions like Africa or Asia. For the over 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide, the next pope will set the tone for parish life, seminary formation, and the Church's approach to contemporary social challenges. The decision also carries significant financial and institutional weight for the Vatican's global operations, its diplomatic network, and its vast charitable works.
As of late 2024, Pope Francis, born in 1936, continues his pontificate, though his mobility has been visibly affected by health issues. He has consistently reshaped the College of Cardinals through consistories, most recently in September 2023 and September 2024, further consolidating a majority of electors of his own choosing. The ongoing Synod on Synodality, a major multi-year consultation process, is seen as a potential legacy-defining project that could influence the priorities sought in his successor. Vatican watchers are closely monitoring the health of the Pope and the emerging profiles of leading cardinals, with particular attention to those holding major curial offices in Rome, as the Church navigates internal debates on doctrine, discipline, and pastoral practice.
The Pope is elected by a conclave of cardinals under the age of 80, who are locked in the Sistine Chapel until a candidate receives a two-thirds majority. Voting occurs in secret ballots, with smoke signals (black for no decision, white for a new Pope) announcing the results to the public.
'Papabile' is an Italian term meaning 'pope-able' and refers to a cardinal considered a plausible or likely candidate to be elected as the next Pope. It is an informal designation used by Vatican analysts and media based on a cardinal's profile, experience, and perceived support.
Yes, there is no formal rule against a pope from any particular nation. However, historical precedent and geopolitical considerations have often favored candidates from outside major world powers, leading to a perception that an American cardinal's election is less likely, though possible.
A period of mourning and funeral rites begins. The Vatican enters a sede vacante (vacant seat) period, governed by the Camerlengo (Chamberlain). The College of Cardinals meets in General Congregations to prepare for the conclave, which must begin 15 to 20 days after the vacancy.
Modern conclaves are typically brief. The 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis lasted two days (five ballots). The 2005 conclave that elected Benedict XVI lasted two days (four ballots). Historically, some conclaves have lasted months or even years.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will the next Pope be? (Pietro Parolin) | Kalshi | 13% |
Who will the next Pope be? (Luis Antonio Tagle) | Kalshi | 10% |
Who will the next Pope be? (Matteo Zuppi) | Kalshi | 4% |
Who will the next Pope be? (Raymond Leo Burke) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will the next Pope be? (Peter Erdö) | Kalshi | 3% |
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