Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
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Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
$0.00
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AI Analysis
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About This Event
Before his term ends If the President of the United States has been impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The President must be the sitting President as of the day. the Senate votes on conviction to be included in this market. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market on Kalshi gives President Trump an 18% chance of being impeached and removed from office before his term ends on January 20, 2029. This is a low probability, meaning the market sees impeachment and conviction as unlikely but not impossible. For context, no U.S. president has ever been removed from office via impeachment. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate. Richard Nixon resigned before the full House could vote on articles of impeachment.
An 18% chance suggests the market prices in some genuine risk, but not enough to treat it as a serious probability. The market is effectively saying: "It could happen, but don't bet on it."
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The main factor keeping this probability low is the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Impeachment requires a simple majority in the House to pass articles of impeachment. With Republicans controlling the chamber, the House would need to vote to impeach a president from their own party. That has never happened in American history. The only president impeached by a House controlled by his own party was Andrew Johnson, and that was a unique post-Civil War scenario.
The second factor is the Senate conviction threshold. Even if the House impeached Trump, conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate. Current Senate math makes that nearly impossible. Democrats would need to flip at least 17 Republican senators, assuming all Democrats vote to convict.
Third, the market is pricing in Trump's first-term impeachment history. He was impeached twice in his first term (2019 and 2021) but acquitted both times by the Senate. The market sees a repeat as possible but far from guaranteed.
What Could Change These Odds
The biggest catalyst would be a shift in House control. If Democrats retake the House in the 2026 midterm elections, impeachment odds would jump significantly. The market would likely reprice to 30-40% or higher depending on the size of the Democratic majority.
A major scandal or criminal indictment directly tied to Trump's official duties could also move the odds. The Manhattan hush-money conviction and the federal documents case are not directly related to impeachment, but a new revelation about abuse of power or obstruction of justice could change the calculation.
The key date to watch is November 3, 2026, the next midterm election. If Democrats win the House, the market will repricing almost immediately. If Republicans hold control, the odds stay low through 2029.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
This prediction market asks whether President Donald Trump will be impeached and removed from office before his term ends on January 20, 2029. Impeachment is a two-step constitutional process. The House of Representatives must first pass articles of impeachment by a simple majority vote, charging the president with treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. If the House impeaches, the Senate then holds a trial, and a two-thirds supermajority vote (67 senators if all are present) is required to convict and remove the president. No U.S. president has ever been removed from office through this process. Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998 were impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before the full House could vote on articles of impeachment. Trump himself was impeached twice during his first term: in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress related to Ukraine, and in January 2021 for incitement of insurrection after the January 6 Capitol attack. The Senate acquitted him both times. The 2024 election returned Trump to the presidency. He took office on January 20, 2025. His second term has already seen significant legal and political activity. Multiple criminal cases against him were dismissed or paused after his election victory, citing Department of Justice policy against prosecuting a sitting president. But impeachment is a political process, not a criminal one. The Constitution does not bar Congress from impeaching a president for conduct that predates their term, or for actions taken while in office. The question now is whether the current Republican-controlled House and Senate would ever move against a president of their own party. The market will resolve to Yes if the House impeaches and the Senate convicts Trump before January 20, 2029. If Trump leaves office without being convicted, the market resolves to No. The market will close early if conviction occurs.
Historical Context
The U.S. Constitution, in Article II, Section 4, states that the president shall be removed on impeachment for and conviction of treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. The House has the sole power of impeachment (Article I, Section 2), and the Senate has the sole power to try all impeachments (Article I, Section 3). The two-thirds conviction threshold in the Senate is high. Only three presidents have been impeached by the House. Andrew Johnson in 1868 was charged with violating the Tenure of Office Act by firing Secretary of War Edwin Stanton. The Senate fell one vote short of conviction. Bill Clinton in 1998 was charged with perjury and obstruction of justice related to the Monica Lewinsky affair. The Senate acquitted on both counts, falling well short of two-thirds. Richard Nixon faced certain impeachment in 1974 over the Watergate scandal. The House Judiciary Committee approved three articles of impeachment. Before the full House could vote, Nixon resigned on August 9, 1974. Trump's two impeachments are the most recent precedents. The first, in December 2019, charged him with abuse of power for pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and with obstructing Congress. The Senate acquitted in February 2020, with only one Republican, Mitt Romney, voting to convict on the abuse of power charge. The second impeachment came after the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack. The House charged Trump with incitement of insurrection. The Senate acquitted again in February 2021, with seven Republicans voting to convict, still short of the two-thirds needed. No president has ever been convicted and removed. The closest was Andrew Johnson, who survived by a single vote. The historical record shows that impeachment is rare and conviction even rarer. Party loyalty has consistently been a strong predictor of how senators vote in impeachment trials.
Why It Matters
Impeachment and removal of a sitting president would be an unprecedented event in American history. It would trigger a constitutional succession: Vice President J.D. Vance would become president. This would reshape the executive branch, potentially reversing many of Trump's policies and appointments. The political fallout would be enormous. A conviction would require bipartisan support in the Senate, meaning at least 19 Republicans would need to join all Democrats. That would likely fracture the Republican Party and could reshape the 2028 election. The economic implications are significant. Political instability often rattles financial markets. The stock market fell sharply during the Watergate crisis and during Trump's first impeachment. A conviction could trigger volatility in equities, bonds, and the dollar. Government spending and regulatory policy could shift dramatically under a President Vance. Internationally, allies and adversaries would react. U.S. credibility on democracy and rule of law would be tested. Countries like Russia and China might see an opportunity to exploit perceived American weakness. NATO allies might worry about continuity of U.S. foreign policy. The impeachment process itself would consume Congress. Legislation on other priorities, from the budget to healthcare to immigration, would likely stall. The American public is deeply divided on Trump. A 2025 Pew Research poll found that 42% of Americans approved of Trump's job performance, while 55% disapproved. Any impeachment would intensify those divisions.
Current Status
As of early 2025, President Trump is in his second term. No articles of impeachment have been introduced in the House. Republican leaders in both chambers have stated they see no grounds for impeachment. Democrats have not made impeachment a central issue, focusing instead on legislative battles over the budget, immigration, and healthcare. Trump's legal troubles from his first term have largely receded. The two federal cases brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith were dismissed after the 2024 election. The New York state case where Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts related to hush-money payments is on appeal. The Georgia election interference case is paused while an appeals court considers whether District Attorney Fani Willis should be disqualified. None of these legal issues directly trigger impeachment, but they could provide political ammunition for House Democrats if they choose to pursue it. The political environment is highly polarized. A February 2025 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 38% of Americans said Trump should be impeached, 52% said he should not, and 10% were unsure. For impeachment to happen, either Democrats would need to win the House in the 2026 midterm elections and then vote to impeach, or a major scandal or event would need to shift Republican sentiment in the House and Senate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a president be impeached twice?
Yes. Donald Trump is the only president to be impeached twice. The Constitution does not limit the number of times a president can be impeached. Each impeachment is for specific alleged offenses.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
