This prediction market topic concerns whether Donald Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives and subsequently convicted and removed from office by the Senate before the end of his presidential term on January 20, 2029. Impeachment is the formal process outlined in the U.S. Constitution where Congress charges a sitting president with 'Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.' Removal requires a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate following a House impeachment. The topic has gained significant attention due to Donald Trump's unique political position as the first former president to be impeached twice, in 2019 and 2021, and his subsequent return to the presidency following the 2024 election. This creates an unprecedented scenario where a president who has already faced impeachment proceedings could face them again while in office. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if Trump is both impeached and convicted by the Senate before his term ends, with the condition that he must be the sitting president on the day of the Senate conviction vote. Interest in this market stems from ongoing political polarization, ongoing legal challenges facing Trump that could intersect with congressional oversight, and historical precedent suggesting impeachment is a rare but consequential political tool.

Historical Context

The impeachment power, derived from British parliamentary practice, is defined in Article I, Sections 2 and 3, and Article II, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution. Only three U.S. presidents have been impeached by the House: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump in 2019 and 2021. None were convicted and removed by the Senate. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before the full House could vote on articles of impeachment. The precedent set by Trump's two acquittals establishes a high bar for removal, particularly when the president's party holds a significant number of Senate seats. The 1868 trial of Andrew Johnson, who was acquitted by a single vote, and the 1999 acquittal of Bill Clinton demonstrate the immense political difficulty of achieving a bipartisan two-thirds majority for conviction. The modern era of heightened partisan polarization makes such a supermajority even more challenging to attain, as seen in Trump's trials where no Senate Republicans voted to convict in 2020 and only seven did in 2021.

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