Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Turkey rate decision in October

Total Volume

$2.40K

Events

Markets

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Turkey rate decision in October

Vol

$2.40K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.40K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.40K

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?	Kalshi	39%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?	Kalshi	29%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?	Kalshi	13%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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39%

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$2.40K

Volume

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About This Event

Oct 22, 2026 meeting If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of X more than 250bps at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all ot

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Turkey rate decision in October
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 22, 2026 meeting

If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of X more than 250bps at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all ot

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of maintain current rate at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks wit"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $113
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $771
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Turkey rate decision in October

Volume$2.40K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of cut 1-250bps at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multipl

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of maintain current rate at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks wit

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of hike 1-250bps at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multip

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of hike more than 250bps at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks wit

KALSHI

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of cut more than 250bps at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with

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Turkey rate decision in October

Turkey rate decision in October

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Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

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Events (1)

Turkey rate decision in October

Markets (5)

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

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Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Turkey rate decision in October

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye maintain the current rate at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike 1-250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye hike more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

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