Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Name: Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
End: 2029-01-20T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$60.72K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $60.72K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $60.72K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Poly	67%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

67%

Top Probability

$60.72K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 20, 2029 (981 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial no"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $60.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.28)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $60.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

980d 12h remaining

Jan 20, 2029 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

67¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/xx8Voy" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?"></iframe>

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Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

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Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)