Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?
Total Volume
$1.18M
Events
2
Markets
53
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?
Vol
$1.18M
|
Events
2
|
Markets
53
$1.18M
2
53
$1.18M
2
53
39 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 49% | 4% |
 | 47% | 41% | 6% |
| 39% | 47% | 8% |
| 36% | 36% | 1% |
| 38% | 34% | 4% |
| 35% | 35% | 1% |
| 27% | 26% | 1% |
| 23% | 25% | 2% |
| 22% | 26% | 4% |
| 18% | 22% | 5% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
before 2027 If X leaves as Y before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. X Y must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. <p>If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unle
Prediction markets currently show a roughly 3 in 5 chance that Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer will leave her position before 2027. This is essentially a coin flip, indicating traders are deeply uncertain. The high trading volume, over $1.2 million, shows significant public interest in the stability of a potential second Trump administration's cabinet.
The even odds stem from two competing narratives. First, cabinet turnover is common, especially in a president's final term. Historical precedent suggests senior officials often depart to pursue other opportunities or due to political fatigue. Second, Chavez-DeRemer's potential role is speculative, as she has not been formally nominated. Markets are pricing in the inherent uncertainty of a future administration's personnel decisions. If she is appointed, her longevity could depend on early policy successes or conflicts with the White House.
The primary event is the 2024 presidential election itself. A Trump victory would set the cabinet selection process in motion, likely in early 2025. Watch for her formal nomination hearing before the Senate and the subsequent confirmation vote. Any contentious hearings or early policy struggles in 2025 could shift predictions significantly. The market resolves in 2026, so any mid-term political shifts or announced departures that year would be the final signals.
Markets are generally reliable at aggregating crowd wisdom on political events, but this specific question has limitations. Forecasting a personnel move for an administration that does not yet exist is inherently speculative. Predictions are based on historical patterns and current political dynamics, which can change. The 4% disagreement between major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket also highlights the uncertainty. While useful for gauging sentiment, these odds should be seen as a snapshot of evolving expectations, not a firm forecast.
Prediction markets are pricing in significant uncertainty about cabinet stability in a potential second Trump term. The leading market asks if Lori Chavez-DeRemer will leave the Secretary of Labor role before 2027. It trades at 59 cents on Polymarket, implying a 59% probability she departs. This suggests the market views a mid-term exit as more likely than not, but the odds are far from decisive. Across 53 related markets tracking various potential cabinet officials, total volume exceeds $1.2 million, indicating high trader interest in this political risk. All contracts resolve on December 31, 2026.
The primary factor is the historical volatility of Trump administration appointments. During his first term, the turnover rate for senior advisers and cabinet members was exceptionally high. The average tenure for a Trump cabinet secretary was roughly half that of the previous five administrations. Traders are applying this precedent to a hypothetical 2025-2026 period. For a figure like Chavez-DeRemer, a current Republican Congresswoman, the 59% price reflects skepticism that a political figure can navigate the reported internal pressures and demanding management style that characterized the prior White House. Markets are also pricing in the inherent difficulty of the Labor Secretary role, which often involves contentious policy battles that can shorten a tenure.
The single largest catalyst will be the actual 2024 election result. If President Biden is re-elected, all contracts in this series will resolve to "No." Assuming a Trump victory, the odds will shift dramatically based on the official appointment announcements expected in late 2024 or early 2025. If Chavez-DeRemer is not nominated, her specific contract will resolve to "No." If she is confirmed, her initial policy performance and public alignment with the President will be the next key test. A major legislative failure or a public disagreement with Trump could cause the probability of her departure to spike above 80%. Conversely, a smooth first year with visible presidential support could push the "Yes" price below 40%.
This is a cross-platform event with a notable 4.3% price spread. The main Chavez-DeRemer contract trades at 59 cents on Polymarket but only 55 cents on Kalshi. This difference likely stems from platform-specific user bases and liquidity pools. Polymarket's global, crypto-native traders may be weighting historical Trump administration volatility more heavily. Kalshi, restricted to U.S. users, might have a trader base applying more conventional political analysis or discounting the historical precedent. The spread presents a nominal arbitrage opportunity, but it is constrained by platform access restrictions and the multi-year resolution timeline, which locks up capital.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on potential departures from a hypothetical second Trump administration in 2026. The market specifically asks which individuals might leave their appointed positions before 2027, requiring an actual departure date where the role is vacated. The question operates on the assumption that Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election and serves a second term beginning in January 2025. Prediction markets like this one allow participants to speculate on political stability, internal administration dynamics, and the longevity of key officials based on historical patterns from Trump's first term and broader political trends. Interest stems from observing the historically high turnover within the Trump White House between 2017 and 2021, where staff changes were frequent and often dramatic. Analysts and political bettors examine factors like policy disagreements, personal loyalty tests, external legal pressures, and mid-term election results to gauge which roles might see turnover in a second term's second year. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if a named individual formally leaves their specified role, excluding temporary absences or recusals.
The high turnover rate of the first Trump administration from 2017 to 2021 provides the primary historical context for this prediction market. A 2021 study by the Brookings Institution found that 92% of senior White House positions turned over during Trump's first term, compared to 83% during Ronald Reagan's first term and 74% during Bill Clinton's. The first 14 months alone saw the departures of National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, Press Secretary Sean Spicer, and Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci. The year 2018 was particularly volatile, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson fired via tweet in March, National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster resigning in April, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigning in November after prolonged public criticism from Trump. The pattern suggests that second-year departures in a hypothetical second term are plausible, especially for roles involving congressional testimony, law enforcement matters, or foreign policy disagreements. Historical precedent also includes 'Saturday Night Massacre' scenarios where officials resign or are fired over principled stands, as nearly happened with Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation in 2017 when Trump ordered the firing of Mueller before White House Counsel Don McGahn refused.
Predicting departures from a presidential administration matters for understanding governance stability and policy continuity. High turnover in key national security, economic, or legal positions can disrupt international diplomacy, financial market regulation, and long-term strategic planning. For example, the frequent change in National Security Advisors during Trump's first term (three in less than two years) created inconsistencies in foreign policy messaging and decision-making processes. For investors and businesses, stability in positions like Treasury Secretary or Commerce Secretary affects predictability around trade policy, sanctions, and economic stimulus measures. Political ramifications extend to congressional relations, as constant confirmation hearings for new appointees consume legislative time and political capital. Socially, rapid turnover in roles overseeing agencies like Health and Human Services or the EPA can lead to abrupt shifts in public health directives and environmental regulations, affecting community planning and public trust. The downstream consequences include potential gaps in emergency response coordination, delays in federal program implementation, and increased reliance on unelected acting officials who may lack full authority.
As of late 2024, no second Trump administration exists, making all predictions speculative. Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November 2024 presidential election. Should he win, the administration would be formed in January 2025. Current media speculation and political betting focus on potential cabinet picks and senior staff from a list of Trump allies, former officials, and endorsers from the 2024 campaign. No official appointments or confirmations have occurred for a 2025 term. The prediction market is active based on anticipated roles and historical behavior patterns.
The market requires an actual departure date where the individual vacates their specified role. This includes resignations, firings, or retirements. It does not count temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals. If the person dies in office, contracts may resolve to a fair price determined by the exchange.
The market premise assumes a Trump victory and a second term. If Trump does not win the election, the specific contracts on individuals would likely resolve to 'No' or be voided, as there would be no Trump administration in 2026 from which to depart. Market rules should specify contingency plans for this scenario.
Communications-related roles (Press Secretary, Communications Director) and National Security Advisor had the shortest tenures during the first term. Cabinet positions like Homeland Security Secretary and Attorney General also saw multiple occupants due to firings and resignations.
No. The market specifies leaving the administration. Moving from one appointed role to another (e.g., from UN Ambassador to Chief of Staff) does not constitute leaving. The person must vacate their role without immediately taking another appointed position requiring Senate confirmation or a direct White House appointment.
Historical factors include public disagreements with the president, congressional testimony that angers Trump, refusal to carry out orders perceived as legally questionable, personal scandals, or desires to return to private sector roles. Many departures were initiated by Trump via firing or forced resignation.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
before 2027 If X leaves as Y before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. X Y must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. <p>If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unle
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration include
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's r
If Pam Bondi leaves as Attorney General before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Pam Bondi must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. <p>If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all cont
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