This prediction market asks which individuals will leave their roles in the Trump administration before 2027. The administration, which began on January 20, 2025, includes cabinet secretaries, agency heads, senior advisors, and other high-level appointees. The question covers departures due to resignation, firing, retirement, or other reasons, but excludes temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals. Death while in office results in a settlement at the last fair price. The market reflects widespread interest in the stability and turnover of President Donald Trump's second-term team, following a first term marked by record-level staff churn. According to the Brookings Institution, Trump's first term saw 92% turnover among senior White House staff, the highest of any modern presidency. This market allows bettors to speculate on whether patterns of high turnover will continue or if the administration will see more stable tenure. The specific departure date must be before 2027, meaning by December 31, 2026, for the contract to resolve to Yes. The market covers a range of positions, from cabinet secretaries to White House aides, and each person is a separate contract. Interest in this topic is driven by the impact of leadership changes on policy implementation, government operations, and political dynamics. The market also reflects broader uncertainty about the administration's internal cohesion and the president's relationship with his appointees. As of early 2026, several high-profile figures have already left, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Homan, while others like Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remain in their roles. The market continues to attract attention from political analysts, investors, and the general public.

Historical Context

Turnover in presidential administrations is common, but the Trump administration's first term set records for instability. According to a 2020 study by the Brookings Institution, 92% of senior White House staff left or were fired during Trump's first term, compared to an average of 61% for the previous five presidents. Cabinet turnover was also high: 14 of 22 original cabinet members left by the end of the term. Notable departures included Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (fired via tweet in March 2018), Attorney General Jeff Sessions (forced out in November 2018), and Chief of Staff John Kelly (resigned in January 2019). The pattern of high turnover continued through the term, with four chiefs of staff, five press secretaries, and three national security advisors. This history suggests that departure risk is elevated for Trump appointees, though the second term may differ. Trump has stated he learned from his first term and would appoint more loyalists. However, the same management style that caused churn remains. The precedent of high turnover in the first term creates expectations of continued instability, but the second term's appointees are more ideologically aligned with Trump, which could reduce friction. The January 6, 2021 Capitol attack and subsequent impeachment also affected staff retention, with many resignations in the final weeks. The second term's early months have seen some departures, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt (resigned in June 2025) and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Homan (fired in September 2025), suggesting the pattern continues.

Frequently Asked Questions