$225.26K
2
35
$225.26K
2
35
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2025-26 Season If X wins the 2025-26 Men's College Basketball Naismith Player of the Year, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Naismith College Player of the Year award is the most prestigious individual honor in men's college basketball, presented annually to the nation's top player by the Atlanta Tipoff Club. Named in honor of Dr. James Naismith, the inventor of basketball, the award has been presented since 1969 and serves as the sport's equivalent of the Heisman Trophy. The winner is selected by a national voting body of journalists, coaches, and former winners, with criteria including on-court performance, leadership, and impact on team success. The 2025-26 season award will recognize the player deemed most outstanding during that specific campaign, with voting concluding in early April 2026. Prediction markets allow participants to speculate on the outcome of this award before the season begins, based on preseason expectations, returning talent, and incoming recruits. Interest in these markets stems from the award's historical significance as a predictor of NBA success, its close association with team championship contention, and the passionate fan engagement surrounding college basketball's star players. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific, predetermined player (denoted as 'X' in the market description) wins the award, providing a clear binary outcome for traders.
The Naismith Player of the Year award was first presented in 1969 to UCLA's Lew Alcindor (later Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), establishing a tradition of honoring the sport's elite. For decades, the award was almost exclusively won by upperclassmen, with only seven freshmen or sophomores winning in its first 40 years. This precedent changed dramatically in the 21st century with the rise of 'one-and-done' players, who attend college for one year before entering the NBA Draft. Freshman winners became more common, with Kevin Durant (2007), Anthony Davis (2012), Zion Williamson (2019), and most recently, Zach Edey being the only player to win in consecutive years since Ralph Sampson (1982, 1983). The award has a strong correlation with NCAA Tournament success, with many winners coming from teams that reach the Final Four. Historically, centers and power forwards dominated the award's early decades, but recent winners have included guards like Jalen Brunson (2018) and big men with guard skills, reflecting the evolution of the game. The voting body expanded over time to include coaches and former winners alongside media, broadening its perspective.
The Naismith Player of the Year award has significant implications beyond individual recognition. For the winner, it provides a permanent legacy in college basketball history, substantially boosts their marketability for Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, and often solidifies their status as a top pick in the subsequent NBA Draft. This can translate to millions of dollars in future earnings. For the winner's university, the award is a powerful recruiting tool, enhances the school's brand, and is frequently associated with deep runs in the NCAA Tournament, which generates substantial revenue and alumni engagement. For the sport itself, the annual race for the award drives media coverage and fan interest throughout the regular season, creating narratives that help sustain viewership. The outcome also influences how the era is remembered, as winners are forever linked to their season. Prediction markets on the award reflect this broader economic and cultural significance, allowing fans and analysts to engage financially with the narrative of the college basketball season.
As of the lead-up to the 2025-26 season, the conversation is dominated by incoming freshman Cooper Flagg, who is the projected favorite across major sportsbooks and analyst predictions. His enrollment at Duke and the program's history of producing stars has cemented his status as the preseason frontrunner. Other top candidates include returning stars from the 2024-25 season who may have developed into national player of the year contenders, and other elite members of the 2024 high school recruiting class. Official watch lists from the Atlanta Tipoff Club will not be released until late 2025, but speculative lists from ESPN, CBS Sports, and The Athletic are already framing the race. The transfer portal and NBA Draft decisions following the 2024-25 season will dramatically reshape the landscape of potential candidates by the fall of 2025.
The winner is selected by a national voting body convened by the Atlanta Tipoff Club. This group includes selected media members, current NCAA Division I head coaches, and former award winners. They vote based on regular season and conference tournament performance, with ballots submitted before the NCAA Tournament begins.
Yes, several freshmen have won. Notable examples include Kevin Durant from Texas in 2007, Anthony Davis from Kentucky in 2012, and Zion Williamson from Duke in 2019. The success of freshmen has become more common in the modern 'one-and-done' era of college basketball.
While there is no formula, voters prioritize a combination of high individual production (points, rebounds, assists, blocks) on efficient shooting, demonstrable impact on team success (winning record, high national ranking), and leadership. Players from teams that are ranked in the top 10 nationally have a significant advantage.
The award is typically announced in early April, during the weekend of the NCAA Men's Final Four. The exact date varies each year but is strategically timed to coincide with the climax of the college basketball season.
Both are national player of the year awards. The key differences are the presenting organizations (Atlanta Tipoff Club vs. Los Angeles Athletic Club) and the voting timelines. The Wooden Award voting considers performance through the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament, while Naismith voting concludes before the tournament starts.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
27 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49% | 66% | 17% |
| 40% | 21% | 19% |
| 40% | 8% | 32% |
| 40% | 3% | 37% |
| 30% | 3% | 27% |
| 18% | 3% | 14% |
| 7% | 2% | 6% |
| 3% | 1% | 2% |
Different
Similar
2025-26 Season If X wins the 2025-26 Men's College Basketball Naismith Player of the Year, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the Naismith College Player of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 Men’s NCAA division 1 basketball season. If the listed player is not included as a semifinalist or finalist for the Naismith College Player of the Year Award, this market will resolve to “No”. If no winner is announced by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the Naismith College Player of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 Men’s NCAA division 1 basketball season. If the listed player is not included as a semifinalist or finalist for the Naismith College Player of the Year Award, this market
If Cameron Boozer wins the 2025-26 Men's College Basketball Naismith Player of the Year, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the Naismith College Player of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 Men’s NCAA division 1 basketball season. If the listed player is not included as a semifinalist or finalist for the Naismith College Player of the Year Award, this market
If AJ Dybantsa wins the 2025-26 Men's College Basketball Naismith Player of the Year, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
No related news found
Polymarket
$64.87K
Kalshi
$160.39K
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/y0zfoR" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="College Basketball Naismith Player of the Year"></iframe>