Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket market titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET" [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T06:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's listed close time, not a record of when the market resolved. The source does not report a resolution outcome, so none is stated here.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T13:18:24.637Z [1]. These are two different timestamps: the first records when the price was observed, and the second records when this text was retrieved. Both are earlier than the listed close, and the evidence does not show what the price is now.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes together sum to 1.000 in this snapshot, so the difference between them is 0.010. The source does not include order book depth, spreads, or trade counts, so it cannot show how easily either side could be bought or sold.
The coverage fields show one market, with one included, and no partial sampling [1]. The source says all saved markets for this event are included, but it does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. Because this event has only the Up and Down contracts, no omitted outcome is relevant here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices were at these levels at the observation time. It also does not show volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. This market is not comparable to other Bitcoin contracts with different windows, resolution sources, or close times, and a price gap between contracts with different rules is not by itself an opportunity. Readers should check the rules and listed close time of any comparable contract before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window crypto contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET." It is listed on Polymarket and falls under the Crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window stated in the title, and it is settled by a specific data feed rather than by general market prices. The rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules link to as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules also state that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream only, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-25T06:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the time the contract is scheduled to close under its rules. The provider's status for the event at the time of observation was active [1]. Neither the listed end time nor the observation status shows what the final resolution will be.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated window finishes at or above its starting level. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single price at the end, the outcome depends on the path of the averaged price, not only on the closing value [1]. The rules tie the result to one named data stream, so readers should interpret the contract as a statement about that feed and not about Bitcoin prices across all venues [1]. The market is short-dated. Its title and listed end time place the window within a few minutes of the close [1]. Contracts like this are often used to express views on very short price moves, and the rules make clear that the resolution follows the Chainlink stream and its defined calculation [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
The contract resolves to Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What source determines the outcome?
The stated resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules say other sources or spot markets do not determine the result [1].
When is the contract scheduled to end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T06:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the scheduled close under the contract rules, not a record of when trading or resolution actually occurred.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.