Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Total Volume

$18.61K

Events

Markets

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Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Vol

$18.61K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $18.61K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.61K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	34%
Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	14%
Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	5%
Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$18.61K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 2030 If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies whil

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 2030

If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies whil

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

An acknowledgment that they will leave office"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $818
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $249
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $15.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Volume$18.61K

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office

KALSHI

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office

KALSHI

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?

If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office

KALSHI

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office

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14¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/y3MEnL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?"></iframe>

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Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

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Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

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Events (1)

Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Markets (4)

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

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