GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Name: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
End: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$38.99K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Vol

$38.99K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $38.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $38.99K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	77%
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	22%
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	0%
Will Grüne win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	0%
Will FDP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	0%
Will Linke win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	0%
Will FW win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	0%
Will BSW win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$38.99K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ran

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ran

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this ele"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $39.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $193.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $902
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $14.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Grüne win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $909
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $18.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will FDP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Linke win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $815
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will FW win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $749
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will BSW win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $920
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld