Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

Name: El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.26K

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Markets

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El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

Vol

$7.26K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.26K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.26K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	36%
Will PCN win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	30%
Will Vamos win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	25%
Will PAIS win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	16%
Will GANA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	2%
Will PDC win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	2%
Will FPS win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	1%
Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	1%
Will FMLN win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	0%
Will Salvadoran Democracy (DS) win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	0%
Will Solidary Force (FS) win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$7.26K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the n

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (141 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result of this election.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties will be primarily ranked by the n

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $139.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $584
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $851
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will PCN win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will PDC win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $353
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Vamos win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will FMLN win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $229
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will GANA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $259
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Salvadoran Democracy (DS) win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $248
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will PAIS win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will FPS win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Solidary Force (FS) win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $209
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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