Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

People's Party majority in the Assembly of Madrid?

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People's Party majority in the Assembly of Madrid?

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Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the People's Party win at least 72 seats in the next Madrid regional election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the People's Party win at least 72 seats in the next Madrid regional election?	Kalshi	68%

AI Analysis

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68%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

On May 23, 2027 If the People's Party has won at least 72 seats in the next Madrid regional election, then the market resolves to Yes. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The market counts 72 seats whatever size the convocation decree sets for the Assembly. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** People's Party majority in the Assembly of Madrid?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On May 23, 2027

If the People's Party has won at least 72 seats in the next Madrid regional election, then the market resolves to Yes. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The market counts 72 seats whatever size the convocation decree sets for the Assembly.

Only seats actually contested and filled are counted. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the People's Party has won at least 72 seats in the next Madrid regional election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The market counts 72 seats whatever siz"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the People's Party win at least 72 seats in the next Madrid regional election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 22, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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