Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?

Total Volume

$3.84K

Events

Markets

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Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?

Vol

$3.84K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.84K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.84K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	86%
Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	72%
Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	14%
Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	9%
Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	8%
Will the United Left be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	8%
Will Más Madrid be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	7%
Will Comuns be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	7%
Will the Republican Left of Catalonia be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	5%
Will EH Bildu be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Basque Nationalist Party be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	3%
Will Junts per Catalunya be a part of the next government in Spain?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$3.84K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2028 If a coalition that includes X make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable, in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government, i.e., once the legi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2028

If a coalition that includes X make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable, in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government, i.e., once the legi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a coalition that includes Vox make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (inc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Basque Nationalist Party be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Más Madrid be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Junts per Catalunya be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the United Left be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Republican Left of Catalonia be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Comuns be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will EH Bildu be a part of the next government in Spain?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?

Volume$3.84K

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

If a coalition that includes the People's Party make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-leve

KALSHI

Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?

If a coalition that includes Vox make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (inc

KALSHI

Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

If a coalition that includes the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministeri

KALSHI

Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?

If a coalition that includes Frente Amplio make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level pos

KALSHI

Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?

If a coalition that includes Podemos make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position

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19¢

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Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

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Events (1)

Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?

Markets (12)

Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?

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Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?

Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will the People's Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Vox be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Frente Amplio be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?

Will Podemos be a part of the next government in Spain?

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