$4.73M
1
4
$4.73M
1
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2027 If Ali Khamenei leaves office before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the Ali Khamenei will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Ali Khamenei leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price, prior to the death. If a last traded price is not available or is not
Prediction markets currently assign a 60% probability that Ali Khamenei will leave his position as Supreme Leader of Iran before September 1, 2026. This price, translating to a 60-cent yes share on Kalshi, indicates the market views his departure within this timeframe as more likely than not, but still carries significant uncertainty. With over $4.4 million in total volume across related markets, this is a high-liquidity event, suggesting substantial trader confidence in the available information and pricing.
The primary factor elevating the probability is Khamenei's advanced age and reported health. Born in 1939, he is 85 years old and has undergone reported prostate cancer surgery in the past. Markets are pricing in the actuarial reality of his age. Secondly, the market structure itself influences the price. The criterion includes not only death but also any announcement of a planned departure within a year, which creates a broader set of potential yes triggers than mortality alone. Finally, the sustained high trading volume reflects ongoing reassessment of geopolitical stability and internal Iranian succession planning, keeping the probability elevated from a pure baseline mortality estimate.
The most immediate catalyst for a sharp increase in the yes probability would be credible reports of a significant health crisis involving Khamenei. Conversely, the odds would likely drop if he makes a robust public appearance demonstrating good health, particularly as the 2025 presidential election approaches, an event where his visible leadership would reinforce continuity. A major shift could also come from unexpected political announcements. While considered highly unlikely, any rumor or indication from within the regime's inner circle about activating formal succession procedures would cause the market to reprice dramatically upward.
This specific contract is trading exclusively on Kalshi, which simplifies the analysis. The high liquidity on a single platform suggests the price is efficient and reflects concentrated informed speculation. The absence of a comparable Polymarket contract eliminates observable arbitrage opportunities but also means all market sentiment is consolidated into Kalshi's 60% probability, making it the definitive benchmark for this political risk event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential departure of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from his position as Supreme Leader of Iran before January 1, 2026. The Supreme Leader is the highest-ranking political and religious authority in the Islamic Republic, holding ultimate power over the military, judiciary, and state media. Khamenei, born in 1939, has held this position since 1989, succeeding the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. His potential exit, whether through death, resignation, or a forced removal, represents a monumental event that would trigger a complex, constitutionally-mandated succession process and could fundamentally reshape Iran's domestic and foreign policies. Recent years have seen increased speculation about his health and the stability of the regime following widespread protests, economic hardship, and regional tensions. The market resolves to 'Yes' if he leaves office before the specified date, including announcements of an impending departure within a year. The specific rules account for scenarios involving his death, with payouts based on the last traded price. This topic attracts significant interest from political analysts, regional experts, and investors due to its profound implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics, global energy markets, and nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
The position of Supreme Leader was established with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini became the first Supreme Leader, combining ultimate religious authority, or Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), with political power. Upon Khomeini's death on June 3, 1989, the Assembly of Experts swiftly appointed the then-President, Ali Khamenei, as his successor. This transition was notable because Khamenei was not a widely recognized senior religious authority, or Marja', at the time, requiring a constitutional amendment to lower the theological qualifications for the office. Khamenei's 35-year tenure has seen the consolidation of power within his office and the parallel institutions of the Revolutionary Guards, often at the expense of the elected presidency and parliament. The last major succession was thus over three decades ago, and the current procedures are untested under modern conditions. Past health scares, such as his 2014 surgery and a reported mild stroke in the early 2000s, have periodically fueled succession debates, but the system has never faced an open transition while he is alive.
The succession of the Supreme Leader is the most consequential political event for Iran's future, with ripple effects across the globe. Domestically, it will test the resilience of the Islamic Republic's unique theocratic-political system. A contested or unstable transition could exacerbate internal divisions, trigger power struggles between the IRGC and the clerical establishment, and potentially ignite further public unrest. Internationally, the event will reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics. A new leader could alter Iran's foreign policy stance regarding nuclear negotiations, its support for regional proxies, and its relations with rivals like Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as with major powers like the United States and China. Economically, the transition will create significant uncertainty in global oil and gas markets, given Iran's status as a major producer. The period of instability could affect shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and influence global energy prices, impacting economies worldwide.
As of late 2024, Ali Khamenei remains in office and continues to make public appearances, though often seated and with visible signs of aging. There have been no official announcements regarding his health or any plans for succession. The regime continues to suppress any public discussion of the topic as seditious. Regional tensions remain high, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program and its support for groups in Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon, which some analysts suggest could be a factor in ensuring regime stability before a transition. The next election for the Assembly of Experts is scheduled for 2024, which could reshape the body that will eventually choose Khamenei's successor.
The next Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of clerics elected by the public. The Assembly debates and votes on a candidate who must meet religious and political qualifications outlined in the constitution, though the process is opaque and heavily influenced by powerful institutions like the Revolutionary Guards.
Upon the death of the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts must convene to select a successor. In the interim, a temporary leadership council consisting of the President, the head of the judiciary, and a senior cleric from the Guardian Council would assume limited duties until a new Leader is formally appointed.
Potential candidates include President Ebrahim Raisi, senior clerics like Alireza Arafi, and hardline figures within the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei, the Leader's son, is also mentioned, but his succession would break with the republic's non-hereditary principle and could cause significant internal conflict.
Yes, the constitution allows for the Supreme Leader to resign or be dismissed by the Assembly of Experts for incapacity. However, this has never occurred in practice, and such an event would be unprecedented, likely indicating a severe internal crisis.
Speculation about Khamenei's health creates uncertainty, leading to intensified behind-the-scenes maneuvering among political factions. It can also cause economic volatility and affect diplomatic calculations, as both domestic and international actors prepare for a potential transition.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
4 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 60% |
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 56% |
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-04-01T14:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 47% |
Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-02-01T15:00:00.000Z? | Kalshi | 23% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yAouse" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?"></iframe>