Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?

Name: Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.00

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Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?

Vol

$20.00

Events

Markets

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.00

100%

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1 market tracked

Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?	Poly	39%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$20.00

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Likud" if Likud is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Yashar is not. This market will resolve to "Yashar" if Yashar is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Likud is not. If both parties or neither party are included in that government, or if no government is formed by Febr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (141 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Likud" if Likud is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Yashar is not.

This market will resolve to "Yashar" if Yashar is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Likud is not.

If both parties or neither party are included in that government, or if no government is formed by Febr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Likud" if Likud is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Yashar is not.

This market will resolve to "Yashar" if Yashar is in"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $20
  DATA: [Likud: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [Yashar: 61.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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