Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

Name: Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$32.81K

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Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

Vol

$32.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $32.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $32.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

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2 markets tracked

Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Poly	31%
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$32.81K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

See market rules.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** See market rules.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $190.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $21.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

See market rules.

Volume$32.81K

Markets2

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POLYMARKET

Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 31.4¢No 68.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if no Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a Hormuz Agreement is announced by Oc

POLYMARKET

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 4.2¢No 95.9¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by

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Nov 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

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Average Yes Price

18¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yIBC43" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?"></iframe>

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Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

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Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

Markets (2)

Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

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Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

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