Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Oregon State House winner?

Total Volume

$70.00

Events

Markets

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Oregon State House winner?

Vol

$70.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $70.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $70.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)	Kalshi	98%
Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$70.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Oregon House If X party wins the Oregon House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the Oregon House is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following a winner being announced

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oregon State House winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oregon House

If X party wins the Oregon House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the Oregon House is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following a winner being announced

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican party wins the Oregon House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the Oregon House is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $70
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Oregon State House winner?

Volume$70.00

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

If the Democratic party wins the Oregon House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the Oregon House is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to

KALSHI

Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)

If the Republican party wins the Oregon House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the Oregon House is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yJ2p9Y" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Oregon State House winner?"></iframe>

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Oregon State House winner?

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Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Oregon State House winner?

Markets (2)

Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)

Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)

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Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Oregon State House winner?

Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

Who will win the Oregon House? (Democratic party)

Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)

Who will win the Oregon House? (Republican party)

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