Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?

Total Volume

$35.76K

Events

Markets

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Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?

Vol

$35.76K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $35.76K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $35.76K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Republicans win all 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans win all 3?	Kalshi	57%
Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?	Kalshi	16%
Will Republicans win South Carolina?	Kalshi	14%
Will Republicans win none of the 3?	Kalshi	7%
Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?	Kalshi	6%
Will Republicans win Nebraska, Kansas?	Kalshi	2%
Will Republicans win Nebraska?	Kalshi	2%
Will Republicans win Kansas?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$35.76K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

NE, KS, SC NE, KS, SC X Republican candidate is a candidate listed with the Republican Party label on the general election ballot. Any other winner, including an independent, is a candidate other than a Republican. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. The full rules provide further details. This market will close and expire early if all elections have been certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** NE, KS, SC

NE, KS, SC X Republican candidate is a candidate listed with the Republican Party label on the general election ballot. Any other winner, including an independent, is a candidate other than a Republican. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. The full rules provide further details. This market will close and expire early if all elections have been certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a Republican candidate in Nebraska's U.S. Senate election, a Republican candidate in Kansas's U.S. Senate election, and a Republican candidate in South Carolina's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Republican c"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans win all 3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans win Nebraska, Kansas?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans win Nebraska?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republicans win Kansas?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republicans win South Carolina?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Republicans win none of the 3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?

Volume$35.76K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will Republicans win all 3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win all 3?

If a Republican candidate in Nebraska's U.S. Senate election, a Republican candidate in Kansas's U.S. Senate election, and a Republican candidate in South Carolina's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Republican c

KALSHI

Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?

If a Republican candidate in Nebraska's U.S. Senate election, a candidate other than a Republican in Kansas's U.S. Senate election, and a Republican candidate in South Carolina's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A

KALSHI

Will Republicans win South Carolina?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win South Carolina?

If a candidate other than a Republican in Nebraska's U.S. Senate election, a candidate other than a Republican in Kansas's U.S. Senate election, and a Republican candidate in South Carolina's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secon

KALSHI

Will Republicans win none of the 3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win none of the 3?

If a candidate other than a Republican in Nebraska's U.S. Senate election, a candidate other than a Republican in Kansas's U.S. Senate election, and a candidate other than a Republican in South Carolina's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves

KALSHI

Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?

If a candidate other than a Republican in Nebraska's U.S. Senate election, a Republican candidate in Kansas's U.S. Senate election, and a Republican candidate in South Carolina's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yLqSnL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?"></iframe>

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Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?

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Will Republicans win all 3?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?

Markets (8)

Will Republicans win all 3?

Will Republicans win all 3?

Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?

Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?

Will Republicans win South Carolina?

Will Republicans win South Carolina?

Will Republicans win none of the 3?

Will Republicans win none of the 3?

Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?

Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?

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Will Republicans win all 3?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Lean R Senate Race Combo: which states will Republicans win?

Will Republicans win all 3?

Will Republicans win all 3?

Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?

Will Republicans win Nebraska, South Carolina?

Will Republicans win South Carolina?

Will Republicans win South Carolina?

Will Republicans win none of the 3?

Will Republicans win none of the 3?

Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?

Will Republicans win Kansas, South Carolina?

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