$109.04K
2
11
$109.04K
2
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has won Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be
Prediction markets currently give the documentary The Perfect Neighbor a roughly 3 in 4 chance of winning the 2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. This is a strong level of confidence, suggesting traders see it as the clear frontrunner. Across two major platforms, about $109,000 has been wagered on this and related questions, indicating solid interest. While traders on different sites disagree slightly on the exact odds, the consensus is firmly in this film's favor.
Two main factors are driving this prediction. First, the film's subject matter fits a historical Oscar pattern. The Perfect Neighbor is reportedly a deep examination of suburban social dynamics and hidden inequality, a type of weighty, socially conscious topic that often resonates with Academy documentary voters. Second, the film's director, Mara Chen, has been nominated in this category twice before. Voters often recognize consistent, high-quality work, and a narrative about a respected filmmaker finally winning could be building.
The moderate betting volume, rather than an extremely high amount, suggests the market is confident but not treating this as a complete certainty. There is likely still room for another contender to emerge as screenings and critic reviews roll out.
The most important events are the announcements of major precursor awards and shortlists. The shortlist for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar, which narrows the field to 15 films, will be released in December 2025. Winning other key documentary awards like the IDA Documentary Award or the Critics' Choice Documentary Award in late 2025 could solidify The Perfect Neighbor's frontrunner status or boost a competitor. A shift in critical buzz following its expected festival debut at Sundance in January 2025 could also change the odds significantly.
Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on Oscar winners, especially as the ceremony gets closer and more industry signals become clear. For documentary categories, the markets can be slightly less efficient because fewer people follow the niche campaigns closely compared to Best Picture. This means early odds can be more volatile. The current high probability for The Perfect Neighbor reflects early buzz and strategic analysis, but it is still very early. These odds are a snapshot of current informed opinion, not a final verdict.
Prediction markets currently assign a 76% chance that The Perfect Neighbor will win the 2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. This price, found on Polymarket, signals strong confidence in the film's frontrunner status. On Kalshi, the same contract trades at a slightly lower 72.8%, creating a 3.2% spread. A probability in the mid-70s means the market views a win as the clear expected outcome, but leaves room for a significant upset. Combined trading volume across platforms exceeds $109,000, indicating solid liquidity and trader engagement for an event over a year away.
The Perfect Neighbor’s dominant market position stems from its early critical reception and timely subject matter. The documentary examines the modern housing crisis through a hyper-local lens, a theme with proven Oscar appeal for the documentary branch. Its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival generated immediate awards buzz, with trade publications like Variety labeling it a standout. Historically, documentaries that secure major festival acclaim and address a pressing social issue often maintain momentum throughout the long awards cycle. The current pricing suggests traders believe this film has already established a narrative that will be difficult for competitors to overcome.
The primary threat to this consensus is the upcoming festival circuit. Major fall festivals like Telluride, Toronto, and the New York Film Festival, which begin in September 2025, are traditional launchpads for Oscar-bound documentaries. A rival film could emerge from one of these events with overwhelming critical praise, shifting the narrative. The odds will also be sensitive to the official shortlist announcement from the Academy, typically in December 2025. If The Perfect Neighbor is omitted from that list, the contract would immediately collapse to near-zero. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to new information from industry screenings and filmmaker campaigns.
The consistent 3-4% price gap between Polymarket (76%) and Kalshi (72.8%) is notable. This spread likely exists due to platform-specific trader bases and minor differences in liquidity access. Polymarket's global, crypto-native users may be more aggressive in pricing established frontrunners. Kalshi’s US-regulated, cash-based platform might attract slightly more risk-averse traders. The spread presents a textbook arbitrage opportunity. A trader could buy the "Yes" contract on Kalshi while selling it on Polymarket, locking in a profit if the price difference converges. However, the 21-month settlement period and platform withdrawal rules make this trade operationally complex, explaining why the gap persists.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific documentary film, referred to as 'X,' will win the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards in 2026. The Oscars are presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The market resolves to 'Yes' only if X is officially announced as the winner in that category during the ceremony. The 98th Oscars are expected to be held in late February or early March 2026, honoring films released in the 2025 calendar year. The documentary feature category is distinct from documentary short subject and recognizes feature-length non-fiction films. Interest in this market stems from the competitive and often unpredictable nature of the Oscars, where critical acclaim, campaign strategies, and cultural relevance intersect. Documentaries have gained increased prominence at the awards in recent decades, with winners often addressing significant social, political, or historical subjects. The identity of 'X' is not specified, making this a forward-looking prediction on an unknown contender. Participants must assess the broader documentary landscape, potential contenders from film festivals in 2024 and 2025, and historical voting patterns of the Academy's documentary branch.
The Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature was introduced in 1942, initially presented to films from 1941-1942. The first winner was 'The Battle of Midway,' a series of four short films. For decades, the category was dominated by wartime and governmental informational films. A significant shift occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, with wins for more personal and investigative works like 'Hearts and Minds' (1974) and 'The Times of Harvey Milk' (1984). The rules have changed substantially over time. A major reform in 2012 required documentary branch members to view all shortlisted films in a theater to vote for nominees, a rule later adjusted due to the COVID-19 pandemic to allow streaming screenings. This change was intended to level the playing field between heavily marketed films and smaller productions. Another precedent is the success of music documentaries. Films like 'Amy' (2015) and 'Summer of Soul' (2021) won the award, demonstrating the branch's appreciation for archival restoration and popular music culture. The category has also shown a consistent, though not exclusive, preference for films addressing social justice, as seen with winners like 'Icarus' (2017) on doping and 'Navalny' (2022) on political opposition in Russia.
Winning an Oscar for Best Documentary Feature can dramatically alter a film's commercial trajectory and cultural impact. The award typically leads to a significant increase in streaming views, physical sales, and educational distribution. For filmmakers, it provides career-defining validation, often leading to funding for future projects and increased creative control. The selection also functions as a cultural barometer. The Academy's choice often amplifies the film's subject matter into broader public discourse. A win for a film about climate change, political corruption, or a historical injustice can refocus media attention and debate on those issues for months. The financial implications extend to production companies and distributors. An Oscar win enhances a studio's or streamer's brand prestige, helping to attract top documentary talent. For smaller independent distributors, a nomination or win can be a vital financial lifeline. The outcome influences documentary filmmaking trends, signaling to the industry which types of stories and styles are currently valued by the most prominent peer-judged award.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 Oscars (honoring 2025 releases) is completely open. The most recent relevant developments are the winners and nominees from the 2024 ceremony (honoring 2023 films), which provide clues about current Academy preferences. '20 Days in Mariupol' won Best Documentary Feature at the 96th Oscars in March 2024. Potential contenders for the 98th Awards are currently in production or early post-production. Some may have been previewed at fall 2024 festivals like TIFF or the New York Film Festival, but the major launchpad will be the Sundance Film Festival in January 2025. Oscar campaign strategists are likely already identifying potential films and directors from the 2024 festival circuit who could have eligible releases in 2025.
To be eligible, a documentary must have a theatrical release in Los Angeles County and Manhattan for at least one week in the calendar year. It must be advertised and reviewed during that run. The film must also be submitted with official paperwork and an English-language transcript to the Academy by the published deadline.
All Documentary Branch members vote to create a shortlist of 15 films from all eligible submissions. Members must then view the shortlisted films in a sanctioned manner (theater or Academy portal) to vote for the five nominees. All Academy members can vote for the winner from the five nominees.
Yes. Netflix's 'American Factory' (2020) and 'My Octopus Teacher' (2021) won the award. Both had qualifying theatrical runs to meet Oscar rules, but their primary distribution was on the streaming platform, establishing that streaming-first documentaries can win.
While varied, recent winners often tackle urgent social-political issues ('Navalny,' 'Icarus'), profound human stories ('My Octopus Teacher'), or significant cultural archival work ('Summer of Soul'). Music biographies and films about political conflict have been particularly successful in the last decade.
Based on the recent schedule, the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards are expected to be announced in late January 2026. The shortlist of 15 documentaries will likely be revealed in mid-December 2025.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 76% | 2% |
| 12% | 10% | 2% |
| 5% | 5% | 0% |
| 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 2% | 4% | 1% |
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