What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets give the Republican candidate a 91% chance of winning Wyoming's single U.S. House seat in the 2026 election. In simple terms, traders see this as nearly certain, estimating about a 9 in 10 probability. This shows an overwhelming consensus that the seat will stay in Republican hands.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain this high confidence. First, Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country in presidential elections. The last time a Democrat won its at-large House seat was in 1976. The state's political identity is deeply conservative.

Second, the structure of the race matters. Wyoming has only one House district for the entire state, so elections are not swayed by liberal pockets in cities as they might be in other states. The current representative, Harriet Hageman, won her 2022 primary against Liz Cheney and then the general election with 68% of the vote. This recent history reinforces the expectation that any credible Republican nominee will easily win the general election.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event is Election Day on November 4, 2026. However, the most important action will likely happen months earlier. Wyoming’s Republican primary, expected in August 2026, is the real contest. The winner of that primary is almost guaranteed to become the next representative. Watch for candidate filings and any potential primary challenges to the incumbent, if she runs again, as those could signal party unity or internal division.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

For elections in politically stable, single-party districts, prediction markets have a strong track record. They reliably aggregate knowledge about near-certain outcomes like this one. The main limitation here is volume. Only about $2,000 has been wagered on this specific race, which is a small market. This means the price could be less efficient than for high-profile national elections. Still, the historical and political context is so clear that the 91% probability aligns closely with conventional political analysis. The real uncertainty isn't about which party will win, but about which Republican will be the nominee.