BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract from Polymarket on whether BNB's price moves up or down over a five-minute window, from 4:40 PM to 4:45 PM ET on October 28. Under the stated rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over that range is "greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T20:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should compare the two carefully rather than assume they match.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 21:00:06 UTC on October 27, 2026, and retrieved at 21:28:00 UTC the same day [1]. At that observation time, the provider reported the market as active, with an "Up" price of 0.505 and a "Down" price of 0.495 [1]. These figures describe that moment only. They are not live quotes, they are not executable prices, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome.
The sample contains one market from one event, and it is complete: the coverage record shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because both outcomes are listed, the two prices together account for the whole binary contract in this snapshot. The small gap between them, 0.505 against 0.495, is a difference in quoted prices at one time and should not be read as a strong directional signal.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it contains no information about trading volume, depth, or the number of participants. It also does not include any other platform's contract on BNB, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences in wording or closing times between contracts would not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
Whether the market has since moved, closed, or resolved is not established by this snapshot. The resolution outcome is also not included in the evidence.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term price direction market on BNB, a cryptocurrency, listed on Polymarket under the title "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules name directly [1]. The rules also make clear that the contract concerns the price shown in that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. This means a traders' view of BNB's price elsewhere does not determine the outcome. Only the specified data stream is relevant to resolution. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T20:45:00Z, which corresponds to the 4:45PM ET close in the title [1]. The provider showed the market as active when the record was saved [1]. That status reflects the saved observation only. It does not indicate whether the contract is open or trading at the moment this article is read, and the dated status shown alongside this article should be used for that.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average of the BNB/USD price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream over a five-minute window, from 4:40PM to 4:45PM ET, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the interval rather than a single closing print, the result depends on how the price moved across the whole window, not only on its endpoints [1]. The rules rely on one named data stream, so the specific methodology and source of that stream determine the result. Readers should treat the contract as a question about that particular feed rather than a general statement about BNB's market price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" outcome mean for this contract?
According to the rules, "Up" applies if the Chainlink TWAP of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does "Down" mean?
"Down" applies if the TWAP over the time range is not greater than or equal to the starting price, which the rules describe as the condition that otherwise applies [1].
Which price data determines the result?
The rules name the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time in the saved record is 2026-10-28T20:45:00Z, matching 4:45PM ET in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.