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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Name: NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.46K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Vol

$1.46K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.46K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.46K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?	Poly	51%
Will Yan Xiong be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?	Poly	32%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?	Poly	24%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$1.46K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 23, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $666
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 23, 2026): Vol $535
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 23, 2026): Vol $394
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Yan Xiong be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 23, 2026): Vol $530
  DATA: [Yes: 31.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics