MA-05 House Election Winner
PM $37.5K
1
2
MA-05 House Election Winner
PM $37.5K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Katherine Clark (D) at 97%.
Polymarket
- Katherine Clark (D)97%
- Republican Party1.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $37.5K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T21:00:06.013Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market is titled "MA-05 House Election Winner" and is categorized under Politics. Its rules state that it "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections" [1]. The rules say the midterm elections "will take place on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is the election date stated in the contract rules, not a separate announcement.
Party is determined by a candidate's "ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation" at the time the House elections are "conclusively called" by the resolution sources. The rules also say a candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party will be assigned to a party based on "the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus" [1]. Resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, the rules point to "the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time for the contract, which differs from the November 3 election date. Readers should not treat the two dates as the same event.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-24T21:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T23:17:36Z. It shows the market as active, and the excerpt describes the provider status as active [1]. These timestamps describe when the data was saved. They do not show live prices now.
The sample contains two Polymarket contracts for the same event. The Democratic Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.97 and a No price of 0.03. The Republican Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.016 and a No price of 0.984 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The coverage record lists 2 total markets, 2 included markets, and no partial sample [1]. Both saved contracts for this event are therefore present. The two Yes prices are for different contracts with different wording, so they should be read separately. Their gap does not establish an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show why prices stand where they do, how many traders hold each view, or how much liquidity sits behind either price. Volume is not included in this interpretation. The evidence also does not include any current news, race reporting, or results.
The provider notes that the saved markets do not establish "that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this sample is limited to the saved event, no conclusion should be drawn about outcomes not shown here.
References
- Polymarket: MA-05 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T21:00:06.013Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The MA-05 House Election Winner contract concerns the U.S. House seat for Massachusetts's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat, not the name of the candidate [1]. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. The source for the contract is a Polymarket event page, which lists the provider status as active [1]. The contract explains how a candidate's party is determined. A candidate's party is based on the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is treated as belonging to whichever party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that same point [1]. The market resolves based on the election result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the contract resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The Massachusetts state legislative elections are scheduled for the same date. Wikipedia describes the 2026 Massachusetts House of Representatives election as covering all 160 of the state's legislative districts on November 3, 2026, alongside U.S. Senate, U.S. House, Governor, and Massachusetts Senate races [2]. That source describes the state legislative contest only and does not address the MA-05 congressional race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: which party will hold the MA-05 U.S. House seat after the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Its two listed contracts are framed around the Democratic Party and the Republican Party winning the seat [1]. The rules place the focus on party control of the seat rather than on individual candidates, and they tie the party determination to a specific point in the process, when the House elections are conclusively called [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. This is the contract's listed end time, not an announced date for when results will be called. The election itself is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. Because the rules depend on when races are conclusively called and on which sources reporting is treated as credible, the timing of resolution can differ from the election date. The market snapshot reviewed for this article was observed at 2026-10-24T21:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T23:17:36Z [1]. The prices in that snapshot are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they reflect a single observed moment rather than a current reading.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the MA-05 House Election Winner contract resolve on?
It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1].
How is a candidate's party determined under the contract?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time [1].
What happens if the result is ambiguous?
If there is ambiguity, the contract resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
When is the election, and when does the listed end time fall?
The midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. The end time is a listed contract time and is not an announced date for result calls.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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