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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Peru presidential first round: margin of victory

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Peru presidential first round: margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	92%
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Rafael López Aliaga in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 5%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Rafael López Aliaga in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Carlos Álvarez in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 5%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Carlos Álvarez in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

On Apr 12, 2026 If the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ricardo Belmont minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ricardo Belmont if Ri

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peru presidential first round: margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Apr 12, 2026

If the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ricardo Belmont minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ricardo Belmont if Ri

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Rafael López Aliaga in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Rafael López Aliaga in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Carlos Álvarez in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the margin of victory for Carlos Álvarez in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Peru presidential first round: margin of victory

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the m

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

If the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?

If the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on t

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

If the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yPDAbL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Peru presidential first round: margin of victory"></iframe>

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Peru presidential first round: margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

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Events (1)

Peru presidential first round: margin of victory

Markets (12)

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Peru presidential first round: margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be above 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ricardo Belmont in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 0% and 5%?

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