Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Total Volume

$186.95K

Events

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Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Vol

$186.95K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $186.95K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $186.95K

100%

Kalshi leads

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4 markets tracked

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?	Kalshi	74%
Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$186.95K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": X single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points i

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Number of rate hikes in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": X single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point an"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $187.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $60.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $19.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $97.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Volume$186.95K

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and

KALSHI

Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and

KALSHI

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and

KALSHI

Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point an

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Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

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Events (1)

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Markets (4)

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

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Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will there be at least 4 Fed rate hikes in 2026?

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