GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Blue wave in 2026?

Name: Blue wave in 2026?
End: 2026-11-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$643.43K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Blue wave in 2026?

Vol

$643.43K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $67.14K

Kalshi

markets · $576.29K

Price Spread

4.0%avg

max 4.0%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $643.43K

90%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Blue wave in 2026?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Blue wave in 2026?ARB	79%	75%	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$643.43K

Volume

Markets

4.0%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2026 If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Blue wave in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats have a seat count of 218 or more in the House
- Democrats have a seat count of 49 or more in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Senate seat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $643.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.9K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 59.29)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (1 mkts) vs Kalshi (1 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Blue wave in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $67.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $576.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 4.0% spread between platforms.

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIPolitics

Blue wave in 2026?

Volume$576.29K

Markets1

POLYMARKETPolitics

Blue wave in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats have a seat count of 218 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 49 or more in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Se

Volume$67.14K

Markets1

1 of 1

Sort:

Arbitrage Opportunity: 4.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Blue wave in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average76.5%

Polymarket+4.0%

78.5%

Kalshi

74.5%

Difference:4.0% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Blue wave in 2026?

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

54d 12h remaining

Nov 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

79¢

Polymarket

75¢

Kalshi

4¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yUChAp" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Blue wave in 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Blue wave in 2026?