Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will core CPI be above headline CPI in September (YoY)?

Total Volume

$1.29K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will core CPI be above headline CPI in September (YoY)?

Vol

$1.29K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.29K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.29K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will core CPI inflation exceed headline CPI inflation for September 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will core CPI inflation exceed headline CPI inflation for September 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$1.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If core CPI inflation is above headline CPI inflation for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first non-preliminary release of each value will be used. Revisions published after the first non-preliminary release will not affect resolution. For purposes of this market, “U.S. CPI all items less food and energy year-over-year inflation” means the 12-month percent change for “All items less food and energy” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will core CPI be above headline CPI in September (YoY)?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If core CPI inflation is above headline CPI inflation for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first non-preliminary release of each value will be used. Revisions published after the first non-preliminary release will not affect resolution.

For purposes of this market, “U.S. CPI all items less food and energy year-over-year inflation” means the 12-month percent change for “All items less food and energy” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If core CPI inflation is above headline CPI inflation for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only the first non-preliminary release of each value will be used. Revisions published after the first non-preliminary release will not affect resolution.

For purposes of this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will core CPI inflation exceed headline CPI inflation for September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics