Name: MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Poly	51%
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Poly	37%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 4, 2026 (200 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

An

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announ"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $207
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $90
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $118
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

199d 12h remaining

Aug 04, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

44¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yiEC0B" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Markets (2)

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Community Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

Social Sentiment

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Related News & Context

Next Market Closes

Share

Embed Widget