$27.16K
1
5
$27.16K
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between KOLESIE and Nemiga in the A1 Gaming League Playoffs, scheduled for March 1 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "KOLESIE" if KOLESIE win the match against Nemiga. This market will resolve to "Nemiga" if Nemiga win the match against KOLESIE. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begi
Prediction markets tracking this Counter-Strike playoff match show an overwhelming consensus. Traders collectively give KOLESIE a near-certain chance of winning the first map of their series against Nemiga. The current probability is effectively 100%. In practical terms, this means the market sees the outcome as almost guaranteed, with virtually no chance of Nemiga taking the initial map.
The extreme confidence stems from a specific and unusual circumstance. This match is part of the A1 Gaming League Playoffs, a tournament for teams from Belarus and Ukraine. On February 28th, the day before this scheduled match, tournament organizers announced that Nemiga had forfeited their entire playoff run. Official statements cited the team's inability to field a full roster for their matches.
This isn't about analyzing in-game skill or recent form. KOLESIE is a Ukrainian squad, while Nemiga is based in Belarus. The market isn't predicting an upset or a close battle. It is pricing in the confirmed administrative result of a forfeit, which awards the win to the opposing team by default. Historically, forfeits in professional esports, especially when announced by the league itself, are almost always final.
The key event has already occurred: the official forfeit announcement on February 28th. The match was scheduled for 9:00 AM ET on March 1st. Unless tournament organizers were to suddenly and unexpectedly reverse their decision on the forfeit before that start time, which is highly improbable, the market's prediction will be confirmed. The main signal to watch is the official match page or league broadcast at the scheduled time to confirm the recorded result.
For events like this, prediction markets are extremely reliable. This is not a forecast about uncertain future gameplay. It is a market reacting to a concrete, official administrative decision. When a league declares a forfeit, the competitive outcome is decided before any players connect to the server. Markets are efficient at incorporating this kind of public information. The limitation here is not forecasting accuracy but understanding the context. A viewer seeing "100% for KOLESIE" might mistakenly think it's a scouting report on team strength, when it is actually a reflection of a settled procedural outcome.
Prediction markets are pricing in a decisive victory for KOLESIE in the opening map of their A1 Gaming League playoff match against Nemiga. The "Map 1 Winner" market shows KOLESIE shares trading at 100% on Polymarket, indicating traders see their victory as a near certainty. This price implies a probability exceeding 99%, a level of confidence rarely seen in competitive esports outside of extreme mismatches. With $27,000 in total volume spread thinly across five related markets, this specific map market shows concentrated, high-conviction betting.
The overwhelming odds stem from KOLESIE's dominant recent form and Nemiga's organizational instability. KOLESIE, featuring veteran in-game leader Kirill "Boombl4" Mikhailov, has been a consistent top-tier contender in Eastern European Counter-Strike. They enter this playoff series on a strong run of form. In contrast, Nemiga has struggled with roster changes and inconsistent performances throughout the season, often failing to challenge established teams. The map one focus is critical. Analysts note KOLESIE's tendency to prepare a strong, default strategy for the initial map to seize early momentum in a best-of-three series, a tactic where they have a high success rate against lower-ranked opponents.
Given the 100% price, significant odds movement is unlikely barring extraordinary news before the March 1 match. The only realistic catalyst for change would be a last-minute roster change or player illness for KOLESIE that isn't already public knowledge. The market's extreme confidence also presents a high-risk scenario. In esports, even heavy favorites can underperform on a given day, especially in a single-map outcome where tactical surprises or individual player streaks can decide the game. A Nemiga win on Map 1 would result in a total loss for holders of the 100%-priced KOLESIE shares, a reminder that markets pricing binary events at virtual certainty can be vulnerable to low-probability upsets.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. No direct comparison with Kalshi or other platforms is available. The thin liquidity across the match's subsidiary markets suggests this is a niche event for prediction market traders, with most activity funneled into the Map 1 winner proposition due to its perceived clarity.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns a Counter-Strike 2 best-of-three playoff match in the A1 Gaming League. The match features the Russian team KOLESIE against the Belarusian organization Nemiga Gaming. The winner advances further in the tournament bracket, competing for a share of the total prize pool. The A1 Gaming League is a regional tournament series for Eastern European teams, organized by the Russian esports company GRID Esports and sponsored by telecommunications provider A1. This specific match is part of the playoff stage, which follows a group stage where teams competed for seeding. The outcome is significant for both teams' standings in the regional competitive scene and their potential qualification for larger international events. Interest in this market stems from the competitive rivalry between Russian and Belarusian Counter-Strike teams, the specific playoff stakes, and the performance of rising players on both rosters. Bettors and fans analyze recent form, map pool strengths, and head-to-head history to predict the result.
The competitive history between players on these rosters dates back several years. The core of KOLESIE, namely sh1ro and nafany, were part of the Gambit Youngsters and later Cloud9 roster that dominated the CIS scene and achieved international success from 2020 to 2022. That team won major tournaments like IEM Dallas 2022 and the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2022. Nemiga Gaming has been a staple of the Belarusian and broader CIS tier-2 scene for years. They have frequently competed in qualifiers for major tournaments and regional leagues but have not broken through to the top tier of international competition. The two organizations have not met frequently in official matches, but the players have extensive experience against each other in the dense CIS competitive ecosystem. The A1 Gaming League itself began in 2023, establishing itself as a key regional tournament for Eastern European teams not regularly competing in the top-tier BLAST or ESL circuits.
For the teams and players, this match matters for competitive progression and financial reward. Advancing in the playoffs means a larger share of the tournament's prize pool and valuable ESL Pro Tour points, which can lead to invitations to more prestigious and lucrative events. For the regional scene, matches like this help gauge the strength of rebuilding squads like KOLESIE against established tier-2 contenders like Nemiga. The result influences the perceived hierarchy within CIS Counter-Strike. For sponsors and tournament organizers, viewer engagement for these playoff matches validates the commercial viability of regional leagues. High stakes and recognizable player names like sh1ro drive viewership on streaming platforms, which is a key metric for the league's success and sustainability.
The match is scheduled for March 1, 2024, at 9:00 AM ET. Both teams have advanced through the group stage of the A1 Gaming League Season 4 playoffs to reach this bracket match. Recent form shows KOLESIE as the favorite on paper, given their roster's pedigree and sh1ro's high-level individual performances. Nemiga will rely on tactical cohesion and hoping to exploit any inconsistency from the more recently formed KOLESIE lineup. The map veto process, which will decide the three maps played in the BO3, will be a critical pre-match strategic phase.
The playoffs use a double-elimination bracket format. All matches are best-of-three series, meaning the first team to win two maps wins the match. The grand final is typically a best-of-five series.
The match will be broadcast live on streaming platforms like Twitch and YouTube. The official Russian-language broadcast is typically on the organizer's channel, 'GRID Esports', with other community streams also covering it.
As of February 2024, the active KOLESIE roster consists of Dmitry 'sh1ro' Sokolov, Vladislav 'nafany' Gorshkov, Sergey 'Ax1Le' Rykhtorov, Timofey 'interz' Yakushin, and Abay 'HObbit' Khasenov. This is essentially a reunion of the former Cloud9/Gambit core.
According to the prediction market rules, if the match is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date (March 1) without a winner being determined, the market will resolve to a 50-50 split. The match must be played within that window for a definitive outcome.
The current competitive map pool consists of Anubis, Ancient, Inferno, Mirage, Nuke, Overpass, and Vertigo. Before the match, teams will take turns banning and picking maps until three are selected for the best-of-three series.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
5 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 0% |
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