Name: Highest temperature in Manila on April 18?
End: 2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Highest temperature in Manila on April 18? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.03K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.03K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 18?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 18?	Poly	27%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on April 18?	Poly	24%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 18?	Poly	24%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 18?	Poly	17%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on April 18?	Poly	9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on April 18?	Poly	8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on April 18?	Poly	7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on April 18?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on April 18?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on April 18?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on April 18?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$5.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RP

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Manila on April 18?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 18, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RP

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature reco"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.43)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $669
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $362
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $304
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $138
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $83
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $487
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.1% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on April 18?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate