$199.00K
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4
$199.00K
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4
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Before Jan 20, 2029 If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before X Y 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 70% probability that former President Donald Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act during a potential second term, before January 20, 2029. This price, found on Kalshi where the market is exclusively traded, indicates the market views the event as likely, but not assured. With $174,000 in total volume across related markets, there is moderate liquidity, suggesting traders are engaging with this question with significant, though not overwhelming, capital.
Two primary factors are elevating the probability. First, Trump's own rhetoric and historical precedent are key drivers. During the 2020 civil unrest, he publicly urged advisors to invoke the Act, a fact well-documented in subsequent testimony and reporting. This established a clear willingness to use the authority. Second, his campaign rhetoric for 2024 has emphasized "law and order," with specific pledges to deploy federal resources to address urban crime and secure the border, scenarios where advisors or a future administration could argue the Act's legal thresholds are met.
Furthermore, the market is likely pricing in a reduced institutional guardrail in a second term. The events of January 6, 2021, and the subsequent challenges to certifying the election demonstrated significant pressure on normative constraints. Markets may be anticipating that a future administration would more readily overcome internal legal or bureaucratic objections that reportedly stalled the Act's invocation in 2020.
The most direct downward pressure on the current 70% price would be clear, consistent statements from Trump or senior campaign officials explicitly ruling out use of the Insurrection Act for domestic policing, which has not occurred. Conversely, a specific campaign promise to use it in a defined scenario would likely drive the "Yes" share higher.
The actual trigger for invocation would require a perceived crisis, such as widespread civil unrest following the election or a major terrorist event. Therefore, the odds are inherently tied to the domestic stability of the 2025-2028 period. A calm term would see the probability decay, while any major protest movement or border crisis could act as a immediate catalyst. Legal challenges would certainly follow any invocation, but the market resolves on the act of invocation itself, not its subsequent judicial validation.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether former President Donald Trump, if elected to a second term, would invoke the Insurrection Act before January 20, 2029. The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a federal law that allows the President to deploy the U.S. military and federalize state National Guard units within the United States to suppress civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The market resolves to 'Yes' if such an invocation occurs before the specified date, with an early close condition if the event happens. The topic has gained significant attention due to Trump's previous rhetoric about using the military for domestic law enforcement, particularly during the 2020 racial justice protests and following the January 6th Capitol riot. Analysts and political observers are scrutinizing Trump's campaign statements, his advisors' public comments, and historical precedents to assess the likelihood of such an action in a potential second term. The question touches on core issues of civil-military relations, presidential power, and domestic stability in a politically polarized era.
The Insurrection Act has its roots in the Calling Forth Act of 1792, but the modern framework was established by the Insurrection Act of 1807. It has been invoked numerous times throughout U.S. history, often for purposes like enforcing desegregation orders or responding to natural disasters. A key modern precedent was its use in 1992 during the Los Angeles riots, where President George H.W. Bush federalized the California National Guard and deployed active-duty troops. The last invocation for civil unrest was by President George H.W. Bush. The Act was also used extensively to enforce federal court orders during the Civil Rights Era, such as by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1957 to integrate Little Rock Central High School. The law was significantly amended by the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, which generally prohibits the use of the military for law enforcement but carves out explicit exceptions, including those provided by the Insurrection Act. These historical uses set legal and political precedents for the scope and limitations of presidential power. The period most relevant to current discussions is 2020, when President Trump publicly floated using the Act during protests following the death of George Floyd. He ultimately did not invoke it, but the debate highlighted tensions between state and federal authority, as several governors opposed federal military intervention in their states.
The potential invocation of the Insurrection Act carries profound implications for American democracy and civil society. Politically, it would represent an unprecedented use of federal military power for domestic law enforcement in the modern era, likely triggering intense constitutional debates, legal challenges, and severe partisan conflict. It could fundamentally alter the relationship between the federal government and the states, as deployment against a governor's wishes would shatter norms of federalism. Socially, the sight of active-duty U.S. military personnel policing American streets could deepen societal divisions, erode public trust in institutions, and potentially escalate civil unrest rather than quell it. The act's use could normalize military solutions to political problems, setting a dangerous precedent for future administrations. Economically, significant domestic deployment would divert military resources from national defense, potentially impact troop morale and recruitment, and could trigger market volatility due to perceptions of instability. The downstream consequences would include inevitable Supreme Court litigation over the scope of presidential emergency powers, intense scrutiny of the military's role in civilian life, and a lasting impact on the public's perception of the armed forces as a non-political institution.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for president in the November election. He has not explicitly pledged to invoke the Insurrection Act during his campaign. However, his policy agenda and rhetoric on immigration and crime have kept the possibility in public discourse. Key advisors and allies, like Stephen Miller and Mike Davis, have publicly advocated for aggressive use of executive power, including at the border, which some legal analysts interpret as laying groundwork for potential invocation. The Pentagon, under Secretary Lloyd Austin, continues standard planning and legal reviews for various contingencies, including potential domestic deployments. Legal scholars and former military officials are actively publishing analyses and warnings about the constitutional and practical implications of using the Act, making it a subject of ongoing professional and media scrutiny ahead of the election.
The Insurrection Act is a federal law that allows the President of the United States to deploy the U.S. military and federalize state National Guard troops within the country to suppress insurrection, domestic violence, or conspiracy that hinders execution of state or federal law. It is one of the key exceptions to the Posse Comitatus Act, which generally restricts military involvement in civilian law enforcement.
Yes. Under certain provisions of the Act, the President can deploy troops even over the objection of a state's governor. This typically requires the President to determine that domestic violence has occurred that state authorities cannot or will not suppress, or that it hinders the execution of federal law or deprives people of constitutional rights.
The last invocation for civil unrest was in 1992 by President George H.W. Bush during the Los Angeles riots. Elements of the Act related to natural disaster response were used more recently, such as for Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but these involved different legal provisions primarily for logistical support.
The Secretary of Defense is the principal civilian official responsible for executing the President's order. The Secretary oversees the military's planning, deployment, and rules of engagement for domestic operations. While the President has the legal authority to order deployment, the Secretary and military lawyers typically review the order for legality and practicality before implementation.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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4 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029) | Kalshi | 66% |
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before 2027) | Kalshi | 63% |
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before March 2026) | Kalshi | 40% |
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 19, 2026) | Kalshi | 13% |
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