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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-41 House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Republican Party win the CA-41 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of California's 41st congressional district election for the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by official results and major media calls. California's 41st district is a competitive seat in the Inland Empire region, covering parts of Riverside County including Moreno Valley, Perris, and Menifee. The district's demographic composition and recent voting patterns make it a national bellwether for suburban and working-class voter sentiment. The 2026 election will be the second contest under new district boundaries established after the 2020 census, following the 2024 election that first tested these lines. Political observers monitor this district because its outcome often reflects broader national trends in congressional control. The race attracts significant attention from both major parties, with substantial campaign spending expected. The winner will help determine which party controls the House of Representatives starting in 2027.
California's 41st congressional district has existed in various forms since 1993, originally centered in Riverside County. The district was solidly Republican for its first two decades, with Ken Calvert winning by comfortable margins. The 2011 redistricting created a more competitive district, but Calvert still won reelection by 10 points in 2012. Demographic changes in the 2010s, particularly growth in Latino and Asian American populations, made the district more competitive. In 2018, Democrat Julia Peacock held Calvert to 56% of the vote, his smallest margin until 2022. The 2021 redistricting process significantly altered the district's boundaries, adding more Democratic-leaning areas while removing Republican strongholds in Corona. The new configuration, first used in the 2022 election, created a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 3.5 percentage points according to February 2024 registration data. Despite this registration advantage, Calvert won the 2022 election, demonstrating the district's swing nature. The 2024 election will provide the first presidential-year test of the new district boundaries, offering clues about its 2026 behavior.
The CA-41 election outcome directly affects which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives. With current narrow margins, flipping even one seat like CA-41 could determine whether Democrats or Republicans hold the majority. This has profound implications for legislation on taxes, healthcare, immigration, and environmental policy. The district's representative influences federal spending decisions affecting local military installations like March Air Reserve Base, which employs thousands of residents. The election also serves as a political indicator for both parties. A Democratic win would suggest their message resonates in diverse suburban districts that Republicans have traditionally held. A Republican victory would demonstrate their continued appeal to working-class voters in growing Sun Belt communities. The campaign itself will test competing political strategies ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
As of early 2025, Ken Calvert has not officially announced his 2026 reelection campaign but is expected to run. Will Rollins has not declared his intentions but is fundraising and maintaining a political organization. The California Democratic Party has begun candidate recruitment efforts for the district. No other major candidates from either party have entered the race. The district's political dynamics may be influenced by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and any subsequent policy changes. Local issues including water management in the drought-prone region and transportation infrastructure funding are emerging as early campaign topics.
The district includes most of Moreno Valley, all of Perris, Menifee, and Canyon Lake, plus parts of Riverside, Lake Elsinore, and Nuevo. It covers northwestern Riverside County in the Inland Empire region east of Los Angeles.
California uses a top-two primary where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party. The two highest vote-getters advance to the general election, even if they are from the same party. This system prevented a Democrat from advancing in 2022 when a third-party candidate split the vote.
Preliminary results will be available on election night, November 4, 2026, but final official results may take weeks. Riverside County typically processes mail ballots for several weeks after election day, with certification occurring by early December.
Key issues include water policy and drought management, housing affordability, transportation infrastructure like Highway 79 improvements, crime rates, and federal spending at local military bases. Immigration and border security also feature prominently in campaigns.
No Democrat has ever represented the 41st district since its creation in 1993. The area was represented by Democrat George Brown from 1973-1993 in the previous 38th district, but the current configuration has always elected Republicans.
In the 2022 election, Ken Calvert raised $4.8 million while Will Rollins raised $5.2 million. Outside groups spent an additional $5.2 million. Total spending exceeded $15 million, making it among California's most expensive House races.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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