What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? | PredictPedia

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10 markets tracked

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	34%
Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	28%
Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	21%
Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	17%
Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	16%
Will the U.S. withdraw from United Nations before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	15%
Will the U.S. withdraw from Interpol before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	11%
Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	11%
Will the U.S. withdraw from G7 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	5%
Will the U.S. withdraw from G20 before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	5%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 20, 2029

If the United States completely withdraws from X before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States completely withdraws from United Nations before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. withdraw from United Nations before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $978
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. withdraw from Interpol before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $997
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $132
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $781
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $316
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $81
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the U.S. withdraw from G7 before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $939
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the U.S. withdraw from G20 before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

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What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

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Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

Markets (10)

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?

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Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?

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Discussion

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