30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

Name: 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$868.71

Events

Markets

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30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $868.71

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $868.71

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?	Poly	43%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$868.71

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between market creation and January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddie

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between market creation and January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddie

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between market creation and January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $869
* **Total Liquidity:** $420
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $869
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

14d 12h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

43¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

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30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)