This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on March 27, 2026. The market will resolve based on data from Wunderground's historical records for the airport weather station, specifically the highest temperature reading in degrees Fahrenheit for that calendar day. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the official high for that date. This type of market falls under climate prediction, where meteorological data, historical trends, and seasonal forecasting models are analyzed to make informed predictions about specific weather outcomes. Interest in such markets comes from weather enthusiasts, data analysts, and individuals engaged in predictive analytics who test their understanding of local climate patterns against real-world outcomes. The specific date of March 27 places the prediction in the early spring period for the Pacific Northwest, a season known for transitional and often volatile weather, making the forecast more challenging and engaging for participants. The use of a single, authoritative source (Wunderground's data for the airport station) ensures clear and unambiguous resolution for the market.

Historical Context

Seattle's climate is classified as temperate maritime, characterized by mild, wet winters and dry summers. Spring is a transition period where temperatures can vary significantly. Historically, March temperatures in Seattle show considerable variability due to the competing influences of Pacific weather systems. For context, the average high temperature for March 27, based on the 1991-2020 climate normals for Sea-Tac Airport, is approximately 55 degrees Fahrenheit. The record high temperature for March 27 was 73 degrees Fahrenheit, set in 2004. The record low maximum (the coldest high temperature) for that date is 43 degrees Fahrenheit, recorded in 1975. Major climate patterns heavily influence late-March weather. Strong El Niño events, like those in 1998 and 2016, often correlate with warmer and drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest during late winter and early spring. Conversely, La Niña phases can lead to cooler, wetter springs. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a longer-term pattern, also modulates regional climate over decades, affecting baseline expectations for seasonal temperatures. Analyzing past March 27 temperatures reveals this inherent variability and underscores the challenge of predicting a single day's high a year in advance.

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