Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election? | PredictPedia

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Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	95%
Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	6%
Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 15% and 18%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 18%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 9%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Apr 12, 2026

If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immed

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.

The margin of victor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 18%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 15% and 18%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Fidesz-KDNP in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 12, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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9¢

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Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?

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Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?

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Events (1)

Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?

Markets (11)

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 12% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 15% and 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be above 18%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election be between 6% and 9%?

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