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Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

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Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

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14 markets tracked

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	12%
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	12%
Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	12%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 51 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 50 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 49 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 46 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	7%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 52 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	7%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 48 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 55 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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12%

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On Feb 1, 2029 If the Democratic party has exactly X Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Feb 1, 2029

If the Democratic party has exactly X Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 55 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 52 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 51 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 50 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 49 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 48 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 46 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

On Feb 1, 2029 If the Democratic party has exactly X Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

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KALSHI

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

If the Democratic party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

If the Democratic party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

If the Democratic party has above 56 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

If the Democratic party has exactly 47 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

If the Democratic party has exactly 53 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/z5gmmO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)"></iframe>

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Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

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Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

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Events (1)

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

Markets (14)

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

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Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

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