Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets are pricing in an extremely high likelihood that Aziz Akhannouch will be removed as Morocco's Prime Minister before the end of 2026. The "Yes" share trades at 85% on Polymarket, indicating the market sees this outcome as nearly certain. With a probability this high, traders are effectively betting on a definitive political change within the specified 27-month window. The market has attracted $85,000 in volume, which is notable but indicates relatively thin liquidity for a geopolitical event of this scale.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Two primary factors are compressing the odds toward a "Yes" resolution. First, the market's timeframe extends to December 31, 2026, which falls after the expected date for Morocco's next parliamentary elections, due by late 2026. Aziz Akhannouch's tenure is inherently tied to the electoral cycle, as his position relies on his party, the National Rally of Independents (RNI), maintaining its leading coalition role. A loss in those elections would trigger his removal, making the market a de facto bet against an RNI electoral victory.
Second, underlying socio-political pressures contribute to this pricing. Akhannouch's government has faced public scrutiny over economic policy and reconstruction efforts following the 2023 Al Haouz earthquake. While the monarchy remains the central stabilizing institution, prediction markets are reflecting significant anticipated volatility in the elected government's composition post-election.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary catalyst that could shift the current 85% probability would be a decisive political maneuver solidifying Akhannouch's position ahead of the electoral window. If the RNI were to form an unshakeable pre-electoral alliance or if the opposition appears particularly fragmented, the "No" share could see a rally. Conversely, any major political scandal, a significant downturn in the coalition's popularity, or an early election call would further cement the "Yes" odds. The market will be most sensitive to polling data and coalition announcements throughout 2025 and 2026 leading up to the vote.
